Central Asia Forecasting is a collaborative analytical project that identifies and tracks regional trends in Central Asia over time. The first study was launched in 2021, and the current edition is an updated follow-up on the first report.
For this study, a human-judgement forecasting method was employed in the form of an opinion survey among relevant experts on the developments in Central Asia in the next three-to-five years. The survey was designed by an editorial team of four experts and reviewed by 11 external advisors before the survey went live for a month in March-April 2023. Over the four weeks 122 respondents took the survey. The results of the survey were analysed by the editorial team and 11 advisors and reviewed by two additional experts.
The report is divided into three sections: domestic politics and society in Central Asia, international relations in Central Asia, and economics, energy and climate change.
For this study, a human-judgement forecasting method was employed in the form of an opinion survey conducted among experts on developments in the region in the near future.
The breadth of expert judgements ensures a diversity of represented opinions. This combination has an edge over expert-only forecasts and has not been employed much in the context of Central Asia. However, it is important to note that judgement-based forecasting is subjective and has certain limitations.
For example, one should note that, while over half of the respondents come from the region, there are certain country imbalances: the number of respondents does not necessarily correspond to the population sizes of the respective countries. Nevertheless, surveying expert opinions both from inside and outside the region provides a unique glimpse into the state of Central Asia’s socio-political, economic and environmental affairs.